Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 72

Cleveland Browns 17 – Miami Dolphins 33

(7:20) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett sacked at CLE 20 for -8 yards (sack split by 15-J.Phillips and 6-M.Ingram).

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP

What Happened

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.72 EP
56% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 72, worth -4.17 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model