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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 19

Cleveland Browns 7 – Miami Dolphins 24

What Actually Happened

(7:00) 3-C.York 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +1.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.98 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 19, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 29, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model