Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- BUF offense: +0.196 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
- QB edge to BUF: Zach Wilson (NYJ) -0.157 vs Josh Allen (BUF) +0.279 EPA/dropback
- NYJ defense: -0.085 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
- NYJ offense: -0.065 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
- Wind 17 mph
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 9
BUF
NYJ
Pulled fresh for 2022 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 04:41 TD BUF (4:41) 17-J.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 6 – NYJ 0
- Q1 00:35 FG NYJ (:35) 6-G.Zuerlein 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann. BUF 7 – NYJ 3
- Q2 06:38 TD BUF (6:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen left end for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 13 – NYJ 3
- Q2 00:35 TD NYJ (:35) (Shotgun) 32-Mi.Carter left guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 14 – NYJ 9
- Q3 04:10 TD NYJ (4:10) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short right to 23-J.Robinson for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 14 – NYJ 16
- Q4 13:38 FG BUF (13:38) 2-T.Bass 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. BUF 17 – NYJ 17
- Q4 01:45 FG NYJ (1:45) 6-G.Zuerlein 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann. BUF 17 – NYJ 20
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 78Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EPp(convert) 61%
(12:33) 7-B.Mann punts 63 yards to BUF 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 20-N.Hines to BUF 33 for 18 yards (44-J.Sherwood).
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Q1 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 35Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EPp(convert) 49% p(FG) 60%
(:35) 6-G.Zuerlein 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.
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Q2 BUF 4th & 10 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(13:59) 8-S.Martin punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback.
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Q2 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 45Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 33%
(10:48) 7-B.Mann punts 38 yards to BUF 7, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 20-N.Hines.
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Q2 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 32Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 68%
(2:00) 2-Z.Wilson pass short right to 87-C.Uzomah to BUF 27 for 5 yards (7-T.Johnson).
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Q2 BUF 4th & 4 at the 37Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49% p(FG) 55%
(:04) 2-T.Bass 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
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Q3 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 52Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69% p(FG) 18%
(12:15) (Punt formation) 21-A.Davis up the middle to 50 for 2 yards (43-T.Bernard; 97-J.Phillips).
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Q4 BUF 4th & 9 at the 33Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 66%
(13:38) 2-T.Bass 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
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Q4 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(12:40) 7-B.Mann punts 46 yards to BUF 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 20-N.Hines. PENALTY on NYJ-34-J.Hardee, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at BUF 12.
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Q4 BUF 4th & 14 at the 54Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(8:05) 8-S.Martin punts 50 yards to NYJ 4, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-33-S.Neal.
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Q4 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 10 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 96%
(1:45) 6-G.Zuerlein 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.