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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 9 at the 33

Buffalo Bills 14 – New York Jets 17

What Actually Happened

(13:38) 2-T.Bass 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.28 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 33, worth -1.62 EP
KICK +0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 43, worth -2.21 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model