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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 35

New York Jets 0 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(:35) 6-G.Zuerlein 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +1.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +4.00 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 35, worth -1.36 EP
KICK +0.56 EP
What Happened
  • 60% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 45, worth -2.05 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP