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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 52

New York Jets 10 – Buffalo Bills 14

What Actually Happened

(12:15) (Punt formation) 21-A.Davis up the middle to 50 for 2 yards (43-T.Bernard; 97-J.Phillips).

The Three Options

GO +1.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.92 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 52, worth -2.87 EP
KICK -1.92 EP
  • 18% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 82% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.79 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 15, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model