4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 37

Buffalo Bills 14 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(:04) 2-T.Bass 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +2.06 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 37, worth -0.12 EP
KICK +1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 46, worth -0.42 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model