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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 78

New York Jets 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(12:33) 7-B.Mann punts 63 yards to BUF 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 20-N.Hines to BUF 33 for 18 yards (44-J.Sherwood).

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.40 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 78, worth -4.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.59 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 35, worth -1.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP