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Chicago Bears

HC Matt Eberflus
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Dallas Cowboys

HC Mike McCarthy
Sunday 2022-10-30 · 13:00 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US ☀️ Clear Spread 10.5 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

CHI
34.0%
DAL
66.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Justin Fields (CHI): -0.120 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • DAL defense: -0.089 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • CHI offense: -0.050 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • DAL offense: -0.053 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CHI 19
–
DAL 24
Projected margin: DAL by 5 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

CHI

Larry Borom T Out Concussion

DAL

Ezekiel Elliott RB Doubtful Knee
Noah Brown WR Questionable Foot
Malik Hooker S Questionable Hamstring
Devin Harper LB Questionable Achilles
Micah Parsons LB Questionable Shoulder
Dalton Schultz TE Questionable Knee
Terence Steele T Questionable Neck
Sam Williams DE Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 29
–
DAL 49

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 35 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:23 TD DAL (10:23) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – DAL 6
  • Q1 05:24 TD DAL (5:24) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 88-C.Lamb for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – DAL 13
  • Q2 13:45 TD CHI (13:45) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 6 – DAL 14
  • Q2 10:56 TD DAL (10:56) 20-T.Pollard left tackle for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 7 – DAL 20
  • Q2 06:52 TD DAL (6:52) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 87-J.Ferguson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 7 – DAL 27
  • Q2 00:45 TD CHI (:45) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep middle to 8-N.Harry for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 13 – DAL 28
  • Q2 00:03 FG CHI (:03) 2-C.Santos 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. CHI 17 – DAL 28
  • Q3 09:48 TD CHI (9:48) 24-K.Herbert up the middle for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 23 – DAL 28
  • Q3 06:55 TD DAL (6:55) 20-T.Pollard right tackle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 23 – DAL 34
  • Q3 05:17 TD DAL (5:17) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short middle to 32-D.Montgomery to CHI 32 for 13 yards (55-L.Vander Esch). FUMBLES (55-L.Vander Esch), RECOVERED by DAL-11-M.Parsons at CHI 36. 11-M.Parsons for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 23 – DAL 41
  • Q4 13:45 TD CHI (13:45) 1-J.Fields pass short right to 85-C.Kmet for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 29 – DAL 42
  • Q4 10:46 TD DAL (10:46) 20-T.Pollard left end for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 29 – DAL 48

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (8:38) 16-T.Gill punts 44 yards to DAL 31, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 20 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (9:32) 16-T.Gill punts 52 yards to DAL 33, Center-48-P.Scales. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 46 for 13 yards (48-P.Scales; 31-Ja.Jones).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 2 at the 55
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58%

    (3:28) 32-D.Montgomery left end to CHI 47 for 2 yards (7-T.Diggs).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 4 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 92%

    (:03) 2-C.Santos 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (13:24) 16-T.Gill punts 62 yards to DAL 6, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-39-J.Blackwell.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 4 at the 88
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (12:11) 5-B.Anger punts 59 yards to CHI 29, Center-45-M.Overton. 18-D.Pettis ran ob at CHI 38 for 9 yards (45-M.Overton).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 4 at the 23
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 88%

    (7:22) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 32-D.Montgomery. 32-D.Montgomery up the middle to DAL 17 for 6 yards (55-L.Vander Esch).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 11 at the 18
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.81 EP
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 92%

    (5:20) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short right to 18-D.Pettis to DAL 16 for 2 yards (27-J.Kearse).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 20 at the 83 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (3:28) 5-B.Anger punts 83 yards to end zone, Center-45-M.Overton, Touchback.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 10 at the 80 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (1:31) 16-T.Gill punts 45 yards to DAL 35, Center-48-P.Scales. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 37 for 2 yards (31-Ja.Jones).