Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 75

Chicago Bears 0 – Dallas Cowboys 7

(8:38) 16-T.Gill punts 44 yards to DAL 31, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

The Three Options

GO -2.60 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.23 EP
66% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 75, worth -4.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model