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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 80

Chicago Bears 29 – Dallas Cowboys 49

What Actually Happened

(1:31) 16-T.Gill punts 45 yards to DAL 35, Center-48-P.Scales. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 37 for 2 yards (31-Ja.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.08 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 80, worth -1.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 37, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model