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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 20 at the 83

Dallas Cowboys 49 – Chicago Bears 29

What Actually Happened

(3:28) 5-B.Anger punts 83 yards to end zone, Center-45-M.Overton, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -3.27 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +0.53 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 83, worth -4.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 41, worth -1.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model