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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 11 at the 18

Chicago Bears 29 – Dallas Cowboys 49

What Actually Happened

(5:20) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short right to 18-D.Pettis to DAL 16 for 2 yards (27-J.Kearse).

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
What Happened
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.37 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 18, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 28, worth -1.06 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.80 EP