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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 68

Chicago Bears 17 – Dallas Cowboys 28

What Actually Happened

(13:24) 16-T.Gill punts 62 yards to DAL 6, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-39-J.Blackwell.

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 68, worth -4.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.38 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 26, worth -1.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP