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CIN Away

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
@
NO Home

New Orleans Saints

HC Dennis Allen
Sunday 2022-10-16 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.0 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

CIN
51.0%
NO
49.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to CIN: Andy Dalton (NO) -0.078 vs Joe Burrow (CIN) +0.126 EPA/dropback
  • NO offense: -0.083 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • NO defense: -0.083 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • CIN offense: -0.038 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • CIN defense: -0.099 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CIN 22
–
NO 21
Projected margin: CIN by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

CIN

Tee Higgins WR Questionable Ankle
Hayden Hurst TE Questionable Groin
Jonah Williams T Questionable Knee

NO

Deonte Harty WR Out Foot
Jarvis Landry WR Out Ankle
Marshon Lattimore CB Out Abdomen
Michael Thomas WR Out Foot
Payton Turner DE Out Chest
Chris Olave WR Questionable Concussion
Paulson Adebo CB Questionable Knee
Marcus Maye S Questionable Rib
Malcolm Roach DT Questionable Ankle
Calvin Throckmorton T Questionable Hip
Jameis Winston QB Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 30
–
NO 26

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:39 TD NO (10:39) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 10-T.Smith for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 15, YAC 3 CIN 0 – NO 6
  • Q1 00:51 TD CIN (:51) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 28-J.Mixon for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 4, YAC 5 CIN 6 – NO 7
  • Q2 13:49 TD NO (13:49) 89-R.Shaheed right end for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 7 – NO 13
  • Q2 10:32 FG NO (10:32) 3-W.Lutz 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin. CIN 7 – NO 17
  • Q2 05:53 TD CIN (5:53) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow scrambles left guard for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 13 – NO 17
  • Q2 00:05 FG NO (:05) 3-W.Lutz 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin. CIN 14 – NO 20
  • Q3 07:16 FG NO (7:16) 3-W.Lutz 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin. CIN 14 – NO 23
  • Q3 03:36 TD CIN (3:36) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 1-J.Chase for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 20 – NO 23
  • Q4 11:11 FG NO (11:11) 3-W.Lutz 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin. CIN 21 – NO 26
  • Q4 03:47 FG CIN (3:47) 2-E.McPherson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 24 – NO 26
  • Q4 02:10 TD CIN (2:10) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 1-J.Chase for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 10, YAC 50 CIN 30 – NO 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (13:05) 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to NO 26, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 89-R.Shaheed to NO 32 for 6 yards (51-M.Bailey).

  • Q1 NO 4th & 9 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (12:12) 4-B.Gillikin punts 59 yards to CIN 8, Center-49-Z.Wood. 11-T.Taylor to CIN 23 for 15 yards (50-A.Dowell). FUMBLES (50-A.Dowell), RECOVERED by NO-82-A.Trautman at CIN 32.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 2 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (8:28) 10-K.Huber punts 40 yards to NO 18, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 1-M.Callaway.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 8 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (6:51) 4-B.Gillikin punts 61 yards to CIN 7, Center-49-Z.Wood. 11-T.Taylor pushed ob at CIN 25 for 18 yards (42-C.Hansen).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (12:47) 10-K.Huber punts 41 yards to NO 25, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 89-R.Shaheed.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 6 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 95%

    (10:32) 3-W.Lutz 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 6 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 96%

    (:05) 3-W.Lutz 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 9 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 93%

    (7:16) 3-W.Lutz 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 9 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%

    (11:11) 3-W.Lutz 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 20 at the 34 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 73%

    (3:47) 2-E.McPherson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 4 at the 69 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (2:16) 4-B.Gillikin punts 29 yards to CIN 40, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 17 at the 48 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 40%

    (:34) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete deep right to 1-M.Callaway.