Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 9 at the 67

New Orleans Saints 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(12:12) 4-B.Gillikin punts 59 yards to CIN 8, Center-49-Z.Wood. 11-T.Taylor to CIN 23 for 15 yards (50-A.Dowell). FUMBLES (50-A.Dowell), RECOVERED by NO-82-A.Trautman at CIN 32.

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.73 EP
66% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 67, worth -3.66 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model