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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 9 at the 19

New Orleans Saints 20 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(7:16) 3-W.Lutz 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +1.19 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.41 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 19, worth -0.50 EP
KICK +1.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.21 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 29, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model