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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 58

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(8:28) 10-K.Huber punts 40 yards to NO 18, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 1-M.Callaway.

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.96 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 58, worth -3.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 18, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP