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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 8 at the 68

New Orleans Saints 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(6:51) 4-B.Gillikin punts 61 yards to CIN 7, Center-49-Z.Wood. 11-T.Taylor pushed ob at CIN 25 for 18 yards (42-C.Hansen).

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.34 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 68, worth -3.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 26, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model