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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 12

New Orleans Saints 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(:05) 3-W.Lutz 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +1.07 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +3.16 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 12, worth +0.01 EP
KICK +2.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 22, worth -0.01 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model