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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
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Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
Sunday 2022-10-02 · 13:00 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.0 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

SEA
53.1%
DET
46.9%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SEA offense: +0.092 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • DET defense: +0.141 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • DET offense: +0.074 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • SEA defense: +0.072 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • Jared Goff (DET): -0.009 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

SEA 26
–
DET 25
Projected margin: SEA by 1 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

SEA

Justin Coleman CB Doubtful Calf
Joey Blount S Questionable Hamstring
Phil Haynes G Questionable Ankle

DET

John Cominsky DT Out Wrist
Jonah Jackson G Out Finger
Austin Seibert K Out right Groin
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR Out Ankle
D'Andre Swift RB Out Shoulder
D.J. Chark WR Questionable Ankle
Josh Reynolds WR Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 48
–
DET 45

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 42 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:29 TD SEA (8:29) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 89-W.Dissly for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 6 – DET 0
  • Q1 06:54 TD DET (6:54) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 88-T.Hockenson for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SEA-27-T.Woolen, Defensive Holding, declined. SEA 7 – DET 6
  • Q1 04:40 TD SEA (4:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith up the middle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 13 – DET 6
  • Q2 13:12 FG DET (13:12) 17-D.Eberle 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox. SEA 14 – DET 9
  • Q2 09:13 FG SEA (9:13) 5-J.Myers 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 17 – DET 9
  • Q2 05:09 TD SEA (5:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 87-N.Fant for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 23 – DET 9
  • Q2 00:03 TD DET (:03) 30-Ja.Williams up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 24 – DET 15
  • Q3 15:00 TD SEA (15:00) 67-M.Nelson reported in as eligible. 16-J.Goff pass short right intended for 88-T.Hockenson INTERCEPTED by 27-T.Woolen at DET 40. 27-T.Woolen for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 30 – DET 15
  • Q3 06:39 TD DET (6:39) 30-Ja.Williams up the middle for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 31 – DET 21
  • Q3 00:40 TD SEA (:40) (Shotgun) 20-R.Penny up the middle for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 37 – DET 23
  • Q4 14:27 TD DET (14:27) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 8-J.Reynolds for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SEA-30-M.Jackson, Defensive Holding, declined. SEA 38 – DET 29
  • Q4 09:36 FG SEA (9:36) 5-J.Myers 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 41 – DET 31
  • Q4 05:28 TD DET (5:28) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 88-T.Hockenson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 41 – DET 37
  • Q4 02:22 TD SEA (2:22) (Shotgun) 20-R.Penny right end for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 47 – DET 38
  • Q4 01:09 TD DET (1:09) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 42-J.Jackson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 48 – DET 44

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 5 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (7:05) 3-J.Fox punts 48 yards to SEA 21, Center-47-S.Daly. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 28 for 7 yards (44-M.Rodriguez). FUMBLES (44-M.Rodriguez), touched at SEA 32, RECOVERED by DET-47-S.Daly at SEA 32.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 3 at the 65
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57%

    (3:07) (Punt formation) 3-J.Fox pass short left to 87-Q.Cephus to DET 41 for 6 yards (37-X.Crawford). Seattle challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

  • Q2 DET 4th & 14 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 79%

    (13:12) 17-D.Eberle 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 12 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 64%

    (9:13) 5-J.Myers 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%

    (:03) 30-Ja.Williams up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 17 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (11:16) 3-J.Fox punts 49 yards to SEA 22, Center-47-S.Daly, downed by DET-51-J.Woods.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 5 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 91%

    (7:33) 5-J.Myers 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 3 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 98%

    (9:36) 5-J.Myers 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 10 at the 48
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 40%

    (7:07) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 85-T.Kennedy to SEA 31 for 17 yards (8-C.Bryant).