Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 17 at the 71

Detroit Lions 15 – Seattle Seahawks 31

(11:16) 3-J.Fox punts 49 yards to SEA 22, Center-47-S.Daly, downed by DET-51-J.Woods.

The Three Options

GO -2.07 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.70 EP
70% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 71, worth -4.07 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model