Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 69

Detroit Lions 0 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(7:05) 3-J.Fox punts 48 yards to SEA 21, Center-47-S.Daly. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 28 for 7 yards (44-M.Rodriguez). FUMBLES (44-M.Rodriguez), touched at SEA 32, RECOVERED by DET-47-S.Daly at SEA 32.

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.18 EP
51% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 69, worth -3.71 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model