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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Detroit Lions
4th & 1 at the 1
Detroit Lions 9 – Seattle Seahawks 24
What Actually Happened
(:03) 30-Ja.Williams up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+4.67 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.94 EP
- 34% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 1, worth +0.17 EP
KICK
+2.96 EP
- 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
- 1% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.00 EP
PUNT
+0.01 EP
- Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
