4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 7

Seattle Seahawks 38 – Detroit Lions 31

What Actually Happened

(9:36) 5-J.Myers 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +2.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.72 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 7, worth -0.38 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP