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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 65

Detroit Lions 6 – Seattle Seahawks 14

What Actually Happened

(3:07) (Punt formation) 3-J.Fox pass short left to 87-Q.Cephus to DET 41 for 6 yards (37-X.Crawford). Seattle challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.47 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 65, worth -3.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.24 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 23, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model