CHI @ NYG — 4th & Data

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HC Matt Eberflus

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New York Giants

HC Brian Daboll

Sunday 2022-10-02 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.0 O/U 39.0

Win Probability

CHI

50.3%

NYG

49.7%

🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

NYG offense: -0.239 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
CHI offense: -0.089 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
NYG defense: +0.026 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
QB edge to NYG: Daniel Jones (NYG) -0.081 vs Justin Fields (CHI) -0.158 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

CHI 21

–

NYG 20

Projected margin: CHI by 1 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

CHI

Dane Cruikshank S Out Hamstring

Jaylon Johnson CB Out Quadricep

David Montgomery RB Out Ankle

Ryan Griffin TE Doubtful Achilles

Matthew Adams LB Doubtful Hamstring

Cairo Santos K Questionable Not injury related - personal matter

Velus Jones WR Questionable Hamstring

Sterling Weatherford LB Questionable Ankle

Robert Quinn DE Questionable Illness

NYG

Cordale Flott CB Out Calf

Nick McCloud CB Out Hamstring

Wan'Dale Robinson WR Out Knee

Kadarius Toney WR Out Hamstring

Leonard Williams DT Out Knee

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 12

–

NYG 20

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 08:31 FG CHI (8:31) 10-M.Badgley 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. CHI 3 – NYG 0
Q1 05:15 TD NYG (5:15) 8-D.Jones scrambles left end for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 3 – NYG 6
Q1 01:33 FG CHI (1:33) 10-M.Badgley 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. CHI 6 – NYG 7
Q2 05:24 TD NYG (5:24) 8-D.Jones scrambles left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 6 – NYG 13
Q2 01:49 FG CHI (1:49) 10-M.Badgley 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. CHI 9 – NYG 14
Q3 11:05 FG CHI (11:05) 10-M.Badgley 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. CHI 12 – NYG 14
Q3 01:37 FG NYG (1:37) 9-G.Gano 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. CHI 12 – NYG 17
Q4 05:34 FG NYG (5:34) 9-G.Gano 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. CHI 12 – NYG 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 NYG 4th & 9 at the 74

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33%

(13:52) 6-J.Gillan punts 50 yards to CHI 24, Center-58-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.
Q1 CHI 4th & 7 at the 11

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33% p(FG) 96%

(8:31) 10-M.Badgley 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.
Q1 CHI 4th & 2 at the 4

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.58 EP

p(convert) 52% p(FG) 98%

(1:33) 10-M.Badgley 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.
Q2 NYG 4th & 10 at the 52

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29% p(FG) 22%

(14:07) 6-J.Gillan punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Touchback.
Q2 CHI 4th & 15 at the 80

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29%

(4:02) 16-T.Gill punts 50 yards to NYG 30, Center-48-P.Scales. 80-R.James to NYG 35 for 5 yards (39-J.Blackwell). FUMBLES (39-J.Blackwell), RECOVERED by CHI-39-J.Blackwell at NYG 35.
Q2 CHI 4th & 9 at the 22

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30% p(FG) 88%

(1:49) 10-M.Badgley 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.
Q2 NYG 4th & 1 at the 57

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 67%

(:44) 6-J.Gillan punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Touchback.
Q3 CHI 4th & 9 at the 17

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30% p(FG) 93%

(11:05) 10-M.Badgley 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.
Q3 NYG 4th & 10 at the 75

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32%

(6:45) 6-J.Gillan punts 55 yards to CHI 20, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 12-V.Jones to CHI 39 for 19 yards (31-M.Breida).
Q3 CHI 4th & 11 at the 62

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32%

(4:32) 16-T.Gill punts 48 yards to NYG 14, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 80-R.James.
Q3 NYG 4th & 14 at the 26

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 22% p(FG) 83%

(1:37) 9-G.Gano 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.
Q3 CHI 4th & 4 at the 70

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 49%

(:45) 16-T.Gill punts 56 yards to NYG 14, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 80-R.James.
Q4 CHI 4th & 3 at the 89

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP

p(convert) 56%

(12:18) 16-T.Gill punts 58 yards to NYG 31, Center-48-P.Scales. 80-R.James to NYG 42 for 11 yards (57-J.Sanborn). PENALTY on NYG-35-J.Layne, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 31.
Q4 NYG 4th & 5 at the 25

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36% p(FG) 85%

(5:34) 9-G.Gano 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.
Q4 CHI 4th & 2 at the 55 late-game

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP

p(convert) 59%

(3:15) 16-T.Gill punts 52 yards to NYG 3, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-31-Ja.Jones.
Q4 NYG 4th & 6 at the 93 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 42%

(2:13) 6-J.Gillan punts 59 yards to CHI 34, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 12-V.Jones MUFFS catch, touched at CHI 34, RECOVERED by NYG-23-G.Brightwell at CHI 37. Penalty on CHI-50-S.Weatherford, Offensive Holding, declined.
Q4 NYG 4th & 5 at the 19 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36% p(FG) 91%

(:21) 9-G.Gano 37 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.