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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 70

Chicago Bears 12 – New York Giants 17

What Actually Happened

(:45) 16-T.Gill punts 56 yards to NYG 14, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 80-R.James.

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.44 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 70, worth -3.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 28, worth -1.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model