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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 57

New York Giants 14 – Chicago Bears 9

What Actually Happened

(:44) 6-J.Gillan punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.19 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 57, worth -2.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.25 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 17, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model