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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 89

Chicago Bears 12 – New York Giants 17

What Actually Happened

(12:18) 16-T.Gill punts 58 yards to NYG 31, Center-48-P.Scales. 80-R.James to NYG 42 for 11 yards (57-J.Sanborn). PENALTY on NYG-35-J.Layne, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 31.

The Three Options

GO -2.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.28 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 89, worth -5.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.60 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 46, worth -2.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP