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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 52

New York Giants 7 – Chicago Bears 6

What Actually Happened

(14:07) 6-J.Gillan punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.26 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 52, worth -2.62 EP
KICK -1.50 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 15, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model