4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 19

New York Giants 20 – Chicago Bears 12

What Actually Happened

(:21) 9-G.Gano 37 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +1.75 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 19, worth -0.09 EP
KICK +2.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.85 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 29, worth -0.23 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model