Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- BUF offense: +0.257 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
- MIA defense: -0.130 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
- BUF defense: -0.118 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
- QB edge to BUF: Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) +0.124 vs Josh Allen (BUF) +0.199 EPA/dropback
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 3
BUF
MIA
Pulled fresh for 2022 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 09:06 TD BUF (9:06) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 26-D.Singletary for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 6 – MIA 0
- Q1 03:39 TD MIA (3:39) 2-C.Edmonds up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 7 – MIA 6
- Q2 12:03 TD BUF (12:03) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 6-I.McKenzie for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 13 – MIA 7
- Q2 06:51 TD MIA (6:51) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 85-R.Cracraft for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 14 – MIA 13
- Q3 03:43 FG BUF (3:43) 2-T.Bass 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. BUF 17 – MIA 14
- Q4 10:08 TD MIA (10:08) (Shotgun) 2-C.Edmonds up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 17 – MIA 20
- Q4 01:37 SAF BUF (1:37) 4-T.Morstead punt is BLOCKED, Center-44-B.Ferguson, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY. The punt was not blocked, it deflected off an offensive player. BUF 19 – MIA 21
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 BUF 4th & 2 at the 2Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 56% p(FG) 99%
(9:06) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 26-D.Singletary for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q1 MIA 4th & 2 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 60%
(6:47) 4-T.Morstead punts 59 yards to BUF 6, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 80-J.Crowder ran ob at BUF 12 for 6 yards (81-D.Smythe).
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Q2 BUF 4th & 2 at the 30Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 60% p(FG) 79%
(15:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles up the middle to MIA 27 for 3 yards (8-J.Holland).
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Q2 BUF 4th & 10 at the 45Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 43%
(3:55) 8-S.Martin punts 31 yards to MIA 14, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 8-J.Holland.
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Q2 MIA 4th & 18 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25%
(1:50) 4-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to BUF 16, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 80-J.Crowder ran ob at BUF 30 for 14 yards (27-K.Crossen).
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Q3 MIA 4th & 11 at the 54Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(13:13) 4-T.Morstead punts 52 yards to BUF 2, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-27-K.Crossen.
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Q3 BUF 4th & 11 at the 11Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%
(3:43) 2-T.Bass 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
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Q3 MIA 4th & 2 at the 68Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EPp(convert) 61%
(2:12) 4-T.Morstead punts 59 yards to BUF 9, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 80-J.Crowder MUFFS catch, and recovers at BUF 8. 80-J.Crowder to BUF 20 for 12 yards (14-T.Sherfield; 43-A.Van Ginkel).
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Q4 BUF 4th & 4 at the 20Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47% p(FG) 91%
(14:12) 2-T.Bass 38 yard field goal is BLOCKED (91-E.Ogbah), Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
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Q4 BUF 4th & 2 at the 2 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 56% p(FG) 99%
(1:49) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 6-I.McKenzie.
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Q4 MIA 4th & 11 at the 99 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(1:37) 4-T.Morstead punt is BLOCKED, Center-44-B.Ferguson, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY. The punt was not blocked, it deflected off an offensive player.