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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 20

Buffalo Bills 17 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(14:12) 2-T.Bass 38 yard field goal is BLOCKED (91-E.Ogbah), Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.61 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 20, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30, worth -1.60 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model