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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 65

Miami Dolphins 0 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(6:47) 4-T.Morstead punts 59 yards to BUF 6, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 80-J.Crowder ran ob at BUF 12 for 6 yards (81-D.Smythe).

The Three Options

GO -0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.03 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 65, worth -3.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.13 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 23, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model