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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 2

Buffalo Bills 17 – Miami Dolphins 21

What Actually Happened

(1:49) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 6-I.McKenzie.

The Three Options

GO +2.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.61 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 2, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.80 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model