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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 18 at the 64

Miami Dolphins 14 – Buffalo Bills 14

What Actually Happened

(1:50) 4-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to BUF 16, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 80-J.Crowder ran ob at BUF 30 for 14 yards (27-K.Crossen).

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +1.90 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 64, worth -2.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 22, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model