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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 30

Buffalo Bills 7 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles up the middle to MIA 27 for 3 yards (8-J.Holland).

The Three Options

GO +1.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.25 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30, worth -1.65 EP
KICK +0.82 EP
  • 77% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 40, worth -2.21 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model