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ATL Away

Atlanta Falcons

HC Arthur Smith
@
SEA Home

Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
Sunday 2022-09-25 · 16:25 Lumen Field, Seattle US ☀️ Clear Spread 1.0 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

ATL
35.1%
SEA
64.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ATL offense: -0.085 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • SEA offense: +0.062 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • ATL defense: +0.099 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • Geno Smith (SEA): -0.008 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • SEA defense: +0.027 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ATL 20
–
SEA 27
Projected margin: SEA by 7 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

ATL

Elijah Wilkinson G Out Not injury related - personal matter

SEA

Shelby Harris DE Out Glute
Joey Blount S Doubtful Hamstring
Justin Coleman CB Doubtful Calf
Quandre Diggs S Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 27
–
SEA 23

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:23 FG SEA (10:23) 5-J.Myers 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson. ATL 0 – SEA 3
  • Q1 07:13 TD ATL (7:13) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota right end to SEA 1 for no gain (57-C.Barton). Atlanta challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 6 – SEA 3
  • Q1 04:16 TD SEA (4:16) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep middle to 89-W.Dissly for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 7 – SEA 9
  • Q1 00:11 FG ATL (:11) 7-Y.Koo 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ATL 10 – SEA 10
  • Q2 08:18 TD ATL (8:18) 84-C.Patterson right tackle for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 16 – SEA 10
  • Q2 04:04 TD SEA (4:04) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left to 14-D.Metcalf for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 17 – SEA 16
  • Q2 00:09 FG SEA (:09) 5-J.Myers 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson. ATL 17 – SEA 20
  • Q3 10:07 FG ATL (10:07) 7-Y.Koo 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ATL 20 – SEA 20
  • Q3 03:15 FG SEA (3:15) 5-J.Myers 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson. ATL 20 – SEA 23
  • Q3 00:41 TD ATL (:41) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass short left to 5-D.London for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 26 – SEA 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 3 at the 14
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 95%

    (10:23) 5-J.Myers 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 5 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (13:50) 4-M.Dickson punts 51 yards to ATL 11, Center-46-C.Tinker, out of bounds.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 2 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 55%

    (4:39) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left to 11-M.Goodwin pushed ob at ATL 18 for 23 yards (29-C.Hayward).

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (3:12) 13-B.Pinion punts 73 yards to end zone, Center-48-L.McCullough, Touchback.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 3 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 96%

    (:09) 5-J.Myers 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 18 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 67%

    (10:07) 7-Y.Koo 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 2 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.45 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 98%

    (3:15) 5-J.Myers 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 15 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (11:00) 4-M.Dickson punts 51 yards to ATL 4, Center-46-C.Tinker. 35-A.Williams pushed ob at ATL 10 for 6 yards (19-P.Hart; 24-I.Dunn).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 1 at the 54 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (3:44) (No Huddle) 20-R.Penny left guard to 50 for 4 yards (24-A.Terrell).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 18 at the 38 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.68 EP
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 62%

    (1:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right intended for 16-T.Lockett INTERCEPTED by 27-R.Grant at ATL 6. 27-R.Grant to ATL 18 for 12 yards.