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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 14

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(10:23) 5-J.Myers 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +2.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.31 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 14, worth +0.12 EP
KICK +2.27 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP