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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 62

Seattle Seahawks 10 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(13:50) 4-M.Dickson punts 51 yards to ATL 11, Center-46-C.Tinker, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.46 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 62, worth -3.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 21, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model