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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 54

Seattle Seahawks 23 – Atlanta Falcons 27

What Actually Happened

(3:44) (No Huddle) 20-R.Penny left guard to 50 for 4 yards (24-A.Terrell).

The Three Options

GO +0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +1.92 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 54, worth -2.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.67 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 16, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model