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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 2 at the 7

Seattle Seahawks 20 – Atlanta Falcons 20

What Actually Happened

(3:15) 5-J.Myers 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +3.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.87 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 7, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.45 EP