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Washington Commanders

HC Ron Rivera
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Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
Sunday 2022-09-18 · 13:00 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread -1.0 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

WAS
44.4%
DET
55.6%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DET defense: +0.138 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • WAS offense: -0.080 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • DET offense: +0.037 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • QB edge to WAS: Jared Goff (DET) -0.050 vs Carson Wentz (WAS) -0.005 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

WAS 21
–
DET 23
Projected margin: DET by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

WAS

Jonathan Allen DT Questionable Groin
Kamren Curl S Questionable Thumb
Wes Schweitzer G Questionable Hamstring

DET

Frank Ragnow C Out Groin
Jonah Jackson G Questionable Finger
Amani Oruwariye CB Questionable Back
Ifeatu Melifonwu S Questionable Hamstring
D'Andre Swift RB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 27
–
DET 36

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 19 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:10 FG DET (8:10) 19-A.Seibert 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox. WAS 0 – DET 3
  • Q1 03:22 SAF DET (3:22) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz sacked at WAS -4 for -9 yards (53-C.Harris). FUMBLES (53-C.Harris) [53-C.Harris], touched at WAS -7, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY. WAS 0 – DET 5
  • Q1 01:45 TD DET (1:45) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-M.Sweat]. WAS 0 – DET 11
  • Q2 13:51 FG DET (13:51) 19-A.Seibert 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox. WAS 0 – DET 15
  • Q2 06:47 TD DET (6:47) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 8-J.Reynolds for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 0 – DET 21
  • Q3 13:03 TD WAS (13:03) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 10-C.Samuel for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 6 – DET 22
  • Q3 03:04 TD WAS (3:04) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep middle to 82-L.Thomas for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 13 – DET 22
  • Q3 01:38 TD DET (1:38) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 32-D.Swift for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN [52-J.Davis]. WAS 15 – DET 28
  • Q4 10:44 TD WAS (10:44) (Shotgun) 24-A.Gibson left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 21 – DET 29
  • Q4 07:05 TD DET (7:05) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 21 – DET 35
  • Q4 02:00 TD WAS (2:00) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 1-J.Dotson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 27 – DET 36

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 4 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (11:43) 5-T.Way punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Touchback.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 3 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 94%

    (8:10) 19-A.Seibert 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 9 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (6:32) 5-T.Way punts 48 yards to DET 35, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 11-K.Raymond to DET 43 for 8 yards (39-J.Reaves).

  • Q1 DET 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 98%

    (4:07) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left to 4-D.Chark (29-K.Fuller) [95-C.Toohill].

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 6 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (:10) 5-T.Way punts 38 yards to DET 42, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, out of bounds.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 5 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 80%

    (13:51) 19-A.Seibert 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (12:18) 5-T.Way punts 45 yards to DET 23, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 13 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (4:20) 5-T.Way punts 45 yards to DET 18, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 4 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (2:51) 3-J.Fox punts 56 yards to WAS 20, Center-47-S.Daly, fair catch by 15-D.Milne.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 6 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (:39) 5-T.Way punts 46 yards to DET 20, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond. Penalty on DET-57-A.Pittman, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (:15) 3-J.Fox punts 45 yards to WAS 35, Center-47-S.Daly. 15-D.Milne to WAS 46 for 11 yards (87-Q.Cephus).

  • Q3 DET 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (11:49) 3-J.Fox punts 63 yards to WAS 8, Center-47-S.Daly. 15-D.Milne to WAS 27 for 19 yards (87-Q.Cephus, 51-J.Woods).

  • Q3 DET 4th & 1 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (7:27) 3-J.Fox punts 53 yards to WAS 6, Center-47-S.Daly, fair catch by 15-D.Milne.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 1 at the 74
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73%

    (15:00) 78-C.Lucas reported in as eligible. 17-T.McLaurin left end to WAS 33 for 7 yards (5-D.Elliott).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 3 at the 33 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.05 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 75%

    (1:38) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short middle to 14-A.St. Brown (29-K.Fuller).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 4 at the 61 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (1:00) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz sacked at WAS 30 for -9 yards (79-J.Cominsky).