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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 74

Washington Commanders 15 – Detroit Lions 29

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 78-C.Lucas reported in as eligible. 17-T.McLaurin left end to WAS 33 for 7 yards (5-D.Elliott).

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.89 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 74, worth -4.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.51 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 32, worth -1.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model