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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 3

Detroit Lions 3 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(4:07) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left to 4-D.Chark (29-K.Fuller) [95-C.Toohill].

The Three Options

GO +2.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.97 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 3, worth +0.24 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model