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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Detroit Lions
4th & 3 at the 17
Detroit Lions 0 – Washington Commanders 0
What Actually Happened
(8:10) 19-A.Seibert 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.
The Three Options
GO
+2.47 EP
Model's Pick
-
49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.30 EP
- 51% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 17, worth -0.27 EP
KICK
+2.23 EP
What Happened
- 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
- 6% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 27, worth -0.63 EP
PUNT
+0.32 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP
The Verdict
Chose KICK
✓ matched the model
