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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 61

Washington Commanders 27 – Detroit Lions 36

What Actually Happened

(1:00) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz sacked at WAS 30 for -9 yards (79-J.Cominsky).

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +0.99 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 61, worth -0.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 20, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model