Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 71

Detroit Lions 22 – Washington Commanders 7

(11:49) 3-J.Fox punts 63 yards to WAS 8, Center-47-S.Daly. 15-D.Milne to WAS 27 for 19 yards (87-Q.Cephus, 51-J.Woods).

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.82 EP
56% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 71, worth -4.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model