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Arizona Cardinals

HC Kliff Kingsbury
@
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Las Vegas Raiders

HC Josh McDaniels
Sunday 2022-09-18 · 16:25 Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas US 🏟 Dome Spread 5.5 O/U 51.5

Win Probability

ARI
46.9%
LV
53.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ARI defense: +0.138 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • LV defense: +0.066 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • Derek Carr (LV): -0.047 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • LV offense: -0.048 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • ARI offense: -0.026 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ARI 21
–
LV 23
Projected margin: LV by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

ARI

Andy Isabella WR Out Back
Rondale Moore WR Out Hamstring
Trayvon Mullen CB Questionable Toe
Justin Pugh G Questionable Neck
Jalen Thompson S Questionable Toe
J.J. Watt DE Questionable Calf

LV

Andre James C Out Concussion
Trevon Moehrig S Out Hip
Denzel Perryman LB Out Ankle
Brandon Bolden RB Doubtful Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 29
–
LV 23

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:25 TD LV (5:25) 78-J.Barton reported in as eligible. 4-D.Carr pass short left to 17-D.Adams for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 0 – LV 6
  • Q2 11:45 FG LV (11:45) 2-D.Carlson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. ARI 0 – LV 10
  • Q2 07:04 TD LV (7:04) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 83-D.Waller for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 0 – LV 16
  • Q2 00:05 FG LV (:05) 2-D.Carlson 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. ARI 0 – LV 20
  • Q3 06:08 TD ARI (6:08) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 83-G.Dortch for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 6 – LV 20
  • Q3 01:41 FG LV (1:41) 2-D.Carlson 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. ARI 7 – LV 23
  • Q4 08:17 TD ARI (8:17) 24-D.Williams up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 13 – LV 23
  • Q4 00:05 TD ARI (:05) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray scrambles left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 21 – LV 23
  • Q5 04:05 TD ARI (4:05) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 13-H.Renfrow to ARI 38 for 1 yard (9-I.Simmons) [45-D.Gardeck]. FUMBLES (9-I.Simmons), touched at ARI 39, RECOVERED by ARI-7-B.Murphy at ARI 41. 7-B.Murphy for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. ARI 29 – LV 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 4 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 49%

    (1:29) 14-A.Lee punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 5 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 96%

    (11:45) 2-D.Carlson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 16 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (9:08) 14-A.Lee punts 30 yards to LV 41, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 9 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:15) 14-A.Lee punts 50 yards to LV 8, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 2 at the 84
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (11:41) 6-A.Cole punts 66 yards to ARI 18, Center-47-T.Sieg. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 21 for 3 yards (10-M.Hollins).

  • Q3 LV 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 98%

    (1:41) 2-D.Carlson 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 1 at the 11
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 97%

    (12:37) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short right to 86-Z.Ertz [26-R.Ya-Sin].

  • Q4 LV 4th & 10 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (12:22) 6-A.Cole punts 61 yards to ARI 28, Center-47-T.Sieg. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 46 for 18 yards (47-T.Sieg).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 4 at the 25
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 87%

    (8:41) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 2-M.Brown for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LV-21-A.Robertson, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 2-M.Brown to LV 1 for 24 yards (21-A.Robertson). Penalty on LV-21-A.Robertson, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 6 at the 61 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (4:54) 6-A.Cole punts 34 yards to ARI 27, Center-47-T.Sieg, downed by LV-87-F.Moreau.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 1 at the 43 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 52%

    (2:28) 1-K.Murray scrambles right end pushed ob at LV 41 for 2 yards (24-J.Abram).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 3 at the 3 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 98%

    (:05) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray scrambles left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.